美国网友:与美国的贸易战,中国为什么不投降?

凡人

美国网友:在与美国的贸易战,中国为什么不投降?

知识万物

近年来，美国肆意挥舞制裁大棒，不但未改变美国产业对外依赖程度，难使制造业回流美国，更使全球供应链更加复杂和脆弱，对全球经济造成深层次伤害。且其本国企业也成本提高、创新和竞争力下降，消费者利益受损。事实证明，在世界经济高度融合的今天，任何国家都无法凭一己之力取得持久发展。无论是“负和游戏”还是“零和经济学”，都与合作共赢的全球共识相悖，必将造成各方皆输的恶果。而在美国国内，却有人问道：在与美国的贸易战斗争中，中国向美国投降了吗？面对这个问题，各国网友进行了批驳。

在与美国的贸易战,中国为什么不投降?

印度网友温菲尔德的回答

There is a saying in India: Google in India is Google, Facebook in India is Facebook, and Uber in India is Uber.

我们印度有句谚语：印度的谷歌就是谷歌，印度的脸书就是脸书，印度的优步就是优步。

Flipkart once had the opportunity to become India's Amazon, a pearl in the crown of the Indian internet and an internationally renowned Indian technology unicorn. But they were acquired by Wal Mart with billions of dollars, and a whole generation of Indian entrepreneurial idols were rudely rejected within a few months after being acquired.

Flipkart曾经有机会成为印度的亚马逊网站，它是印度互联网皇冠上的明珠，国际知名的印度科技独角兽，但他们被沃尔玛以数十亿美元收购后血流成河，整整一代印度人的创业偶像在被收购后的几个月内就被毫不客气地拒之门外。

Flipkart曾经有机会成为印度的亚马逊网站

This is in a country where IT is supposed to be a strength, cultivating talents like Google CEO Sunder Pachai and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadala. But due to the lack of good government policies, Indian companies were repeatedly defeated by the United States.

这是在一个IT应该是强项的国家，它培养了像谷歌CEO的Sunder Pachai和微软CEO的Satya Nadala这样的人才。但因为没有好的政府政策，印度公司被美国打得节节败退。

印度培养了像谷歌CEO的Sunder Pachai

Let's take a look at China again.

让我们再来看看中国。

Americans have also tried to gain ground in the Chinese market, but they always find it difficult to adapt to the local conditions.

美国人也尝试在中国市场攻城略地，但总是水土不服。

美国人也尝试在中国市场攻城略地，但总是水土不服

China's Google is Baidu, China's Facebook and WhatsApp are Tencent and WeChat, and China's Amazon is Alibaba. China's iPhone is Xiaomi and Huawei. So far, they are the dominant players in the local market. This strength also enables them to expand internationally. The Chinese government cleverly counterattacked while establishing core competitiveness internally.

中国的谷歌是百度，中国的脸书和WhatsApp是腾讯和微信，中国的亚马逊是阿里巴巴。中国的iphone是小米和华为。到目前为止，他们是当地市场的主导者。这种实力也使他们能够在国际上扩张。中国政府在内部建立核心竞争力的同时，巧妙地进行了反击。

I really hope that India, like China, can have even 80% of the best services like Amazon, which is better than becoming a customer country for Americans, creating local skills, capabilities, job opportunities, and maintaining economic and national security. Moreover, in certain fields, Chinese people seem to have innovated and are ahead of Americans.

我多么希望印度能像中国一样，拥有即使是像亚马逊这样80%好的服务，也比成为美国人的客户国要好，创造本土技能、能力、就业机会以及维护经济和国家安全，而且在某些领域，中国人似乎已经在创新，领先于美国人。

Yes, if we abandon foreign markets or sell our own destiny and only control the interests of local enterprises, India's pressure will be less.

是啊，放弃外国市场，或者出卖我们自己的命运，只控制本土企业的利益，印度的压力会更小一些。

But this is the highest level economic and national security issue, and the fact that Americans are using leverage to abuse their power should make every non American more resilient in controlling their own destiny and sovereignty. I hope every Indian can be vigilant!

但这是一个最高级别的经济和国家安全问题，美国人正在利用杠杆滥用权力，这一事实应该会让每个非美国人在控制自己的命运和主权方面更有韧性，希望每个印度人能够警醒！

Let's talk about the trade war again. Has China surrendered? Short answer: No. To be honest, he doesn't need it. For those who believe that China has or ultimately does not understand China, it is necessary to popularize their knowledge of the people, history, and especially the government to you.

让我们再说回贸易战，中国投降了吗？简短回答：没有。老实说，他不需要。对于那些认为中国已经或最终不了解中国的人来说，需要向你们普及他们的人民，历史，尤其是政府的知识。

This leads to a long answer. I may offer a different economic perspective. This is the result of my work as a Southeast Asian agricultural product trader (also trading agricultural products with the United States) and the conclusion I drew from discussions with a few major Chinese clients.

这就引出了一个很长的答案。我可能会给出一个不同的经济学观点。这是我作为东南亚农产品贸易商（也与美国农产品交易）的工作所得，也是我从与少数主要中国客户的讨论中得出的结论。

Firstly, let's talk about China's economic strength

首先，让我们谈谈中国的经济实力

The world's second largest economy (GDP exceeding 18 trillion);

• 世界第二大经济体（GDP超过18万亿）；

Net exporter, with a total export volume of approximately 3.3 trillion US dollars and a trade surplus of approximately 800 billion US dollars (statistical data searched on Google may not be accurate, but roughly accurate);

• 净出口国，出口总额约3.3万亿美元，贸易顺差约8000亿美元（统计数据在谷歌上搜索过，可能不准确，但大致正确）；

China's trade surplus with the United States (excluding US imports) exceeds $400 billion;

• 中国对美国的贸易顺差（中国出口（减去美国进口）超过4000亿美元；

Therefore, the United States accounts for approximately 18-19% of China's total exports, which is important but still not the largest;

• 因此，美国约占中国出口总额的18-19%，重要但仍然不是最大；

China's foreign exchange reserves exceed 3 trillion US dollars;

• 中国外汇储备3万亿美元以上；

• The total US debt to China (in terms of US treasury bond bonds) is more than US $1 trillion.

• 美国对华债务总额（以美国国债计）1万亿美元以上。

It is easy to conclude from the above that in terms of its vast scale, China is not a weak country that the United States can bully. Yes, the United States can impose tariffs on exports worth around 250 billion yuan. China does not have as many places to start as the United States, but will they retreat and panic? Of course not.

从上面可以很容易地得出结论，就其庞大的规模而言，中国不是美国可以欺负的弱小国家。是的，美国可以对2500亿左右的出口产品征收关税，中国确实着手地方没有美国多，但他们会退缩和恐慌吗？当然不会。

So, what will China do? Impose tariffs on US exports worth $60 billion to China. For example, targeted crackdowns on soybean producing areas have a significant impact on Republican votes.

那么，中国会怎么做呢？对价值600亿美元的美国对华出口征收关税。例如对大豆产区针对性地实施打击，这对共和党的选票影响很大。

旅居中国的美国网友J•亚当斯

旅居中国的美国网友J•亚当斯的回答

China will give a strong counterattack.

中国会给一个有力的回击。

Look, the United States will never tolerate severe competition for its global hegemonic position, even within its own capitalist camp (i.e. Japan). As Rei Tanotsuka said in answering similar questions, China knows that once China reaches a certain level, there is no real way to appease the United States, so the only thing to do is either fight or die.

看，美国永远不会容忍对其全球霸主地位的严重竞争，即使是在其自己的资本主义阵营内（即日本）。正如李谷冢（Rei Tanotsuka）在回答类似问题时所说的那样，中国知道，一旦中国达到一定水平，就没有真正的办法来安抚美国，所以唯一要做的就是要么战斗要么死亡。

In 2005, there was a very popular Chinese TV drama called Liangjian. It focuses on the story of a fictional Chinese military commander and his achievements during World War II and the Chinese Civil War (which often involve stories from the Kuomintang). Anyway, the theme of the entire drama is that in the early stages of the Anti Japanese War, when the Communist forces, who were poorly equipped and regarded as a rabble by the Kuomintang, repeatedly confronted the forces of the Japanese imperialist army, victory or death did not matter, What is important is the spirit of the sword (the TV series specifically uses multiple scenes to prove this, in which Japanese commanders command soldiers to carry out dignified military burials for Chinese soldiers who fought until their death).

2005年有一个非常受欢迎的中国电视剧叫亮剑 。它聚焦于一个虚构的中国军事指挥官的故事，以及他在二战和中国内战期间的功绩（这经常涉及国民党方面的故事）。无论如何，整部剧的主题是：在抗战早期，当装备简陋、被国民党视为乌合之众的共产党部队一再与日本帝国主义军队的力量对抗时，是胜利或死亡并不重要，重要的是亮剑精神（该电视剧特意用多个场景来证明这一点，在这些场景中，日本指挥官命令士兵为战斗到死的中国士兵进行体面的军事埋葬）。

2005年有一个非常受欢迎的中国电视剧叫亮剑

The Bright Sword provides profound insights into the military thinking of the CPC. The CPC has always defeated enemies stronger than itself (Japan, the Chinese Kuomintang, the United States, the Soviet Union, etc.) and won. It is a political organization that is good at fighting. Therefore, in reality, this trade war is just a difficult struggle that China must face in the new era.

《亮剑》为外界了解中国共产党军事思想提供了深刻的见解。中国共产党总是战胜比自己强大的敌人（日本、中国国民党、美国、苏联等）并取得胜利。它是一个有着擅于作斗争的政治组织。因此，实际上，这场贸易战只是中国新时期必须面对的艰苦斗争。

Interestingly, I believe that 'The Sword of Light' also gave us a deeper understanding of why modern Japan has fallen in this regard. The Japanese have a tradition of warrior race, and their warrior code is called Bushido. Japanese people are always in their best state when fighting for something like hormones. Look at how quickly Japan could rise after the Meiji Restoration in 1868. In the heyday of 1942 (only 74 years after the Meiji Restoration), the Japanese Empire was on par with the British Empire.

有趣的是，我认为《亮剑》也让我们深入了解了现代日本为何就此堕落。日本人有一个战士种族的传统，他们的战士准则被称为武士道，这让日本人在为某事而战时总是打激素般处于最佳状态。看看1868年明治维新后，日本能以多快的速度崛起。在1942年（明治维新仅74年后）的鼎盛时期，日本帝国与大英帝国不相上下。

Of course, Japan lost this war mainly because of the superior economic strength of the United States, which had to give up its imperial ambitions forever. However, the samurai spirit of the Japanese people continued after the war, as they fought to become the world's most outstanding economic power. However, just as victory seemed imminent in the 1980s, the United States came and once again defeated Japan.

当然，日本输掉了这场战争，主要是因为美国优越的经济实力，它不得不永远放弃其帝国野心。然而，日本人民的武士精神在二战后得以延续，他们为成为世界上最卓越的经济大国而斗争，但就在80年代胜利似乎指日可待的时候，美国又来了，再次击倒了日本。

Unlike World War II, Japanese soldiers made every effort to fight for every inch of land before the Emperor personally ordered surrender, This time, Japanese leaders handed over their economic empire to the United States without even firing a shot. For a warrior who firmly believes in the warrior code (or what the protagonist, Colonel Li Yunlong, calls the "Sword Spirit"), losing to the United States on the second occasion is more shameful than the first. With the second loss came the massive loss of the soul of samurai, which Japan had never recovered from.

但与二战不同的是，日本士兵曾在天皇亲自下令投降之前，竭尽全力掠夺每一寸土地，这次日本领导人甚至没有开一枪就将其经济帝国拱手让给了美国。对于一个坚信战士守则（或剧中主角李云龙上校称之为“亮剑精神”）的战士来说，第二次输给美国比第一次更可耻。伴随着第二次损失而来的是日本武士灵魂的大规模损失，这是日本从未能够从中恢复过来的。

My mother often visited Japan in the 1980s because she was a translator. She witnessed Japan's heyday and saw pride, hope, and optimism in the eyes of the Japanese people (as you can see in the eyes of the Chinese people today). Afterwards, she visited this country multiple times and couldn't help but see with the same eyes that the pride, hope, and optimism of the past decade had been replaced by uncertainty, frustration, and pessimism.

我母亲在80年代经常访问日本，因为她是一名翻译。她见证了日本的全盛时期，在日本人民眼中看到了自豪、希望和乐观的情绪（就像你在今天的中国人眼中看到的一样）。此后，她多次访问这个国家，每次都忍不住用同样的眼睛看到，过去十年的骄傲、希望和乐观情绪已经被不确定、沮丧和悲观情绪所取代。

日本经济泡沫破灭

If China is really good at doing something, it is learning from the success and failure of others. Although great attention has been paid to China's efforts to study the disintegration of the Soviet Union, little attention has been paid to China's research on Japan's economic collapse. China is very clear about what caused Japan's economic collapse, just as it is very clear who caused the political collapse of the Soviet Union. It will do its utmost to ensure that this situation does not happen to China.

如果说中国真的擅长做什么事情，那就是从别人的成功和失败中学习。虽然人们对中国研究苏联解体的努力给予了很大关注，但对中国对日本经济崩溃的研究却很少关注。中国非常清楚是什么导致了日本的经济崩溃，就像它非常清楚是谁导致了苏联的政治崩溃一样，它将竭尽全力确保这种情况不会发生在中国身上。

China will not retreat in a trade war

So, no, China will not retreat in a trade war. In the spirit of "shining the sword when facing enemies", China has repeatedly stated that although it does not want conflicts, it will not avoid them. If the United States wants to launch a trade war, then China will end it (to the end).

所以，不，中国不会在贸易战中退缩。本着“逢敌必亮剑”的精神，中国已经多次表示，虽然他不希望冲突，但他不会回避冲突，如果美国想发动贸易战，那么中国就会结束它(奉陪到底)。

When asked by television reporters who will pay for the huge tariffs, White House economic advisor Kudlow said, "Both sides will be affected. Although Kudlow stated that the US economy could cope with this impact, the media seized on his statement and emphasized that he and the White House depicted different images of the impact of the tariff war. The latter has long emphasized that tariffs are a good option that can help the US economy recover.

当被电视记者问及谁将为巨额关税买单时，白宫经济顾问库德洛表示，“双方都将受到影响”。尽管库德洛表示，美国经济可以应对这种影响，但媒体抓住了他的说法，强调他和白宫对关税战的影响描绘了不同的画面。后者长期以来一直强调，关税是一个很好的选择，可以帮助美国经济得到恢复。

With the outbreak of an unprecedented trade war, Washington is becoming increasingly anxious because it has put everything on the table without seeing any signs of China being crushed. Washington had hoped for quick victory rather than collectively preparing for a prolonged trade war, but now it is hastily mobilizing and being trapped by some untenable common sense arguments.

随着一场规模空前的贸易战的爆发，华盛顿越来越焦虑，因为它把一切都押在了赌注上，却没有看到中国被压垮的迹象。华盛顿曾希望迅速取得胜利，而不是集体为旷日持久的贸易战做好准备，现在却在匆忙动员起来，却被一些站不住脚的常识性论点搞得作茧自缚。

For example, the White House has repeatedly stated that tariffs will benefit the US economy and the welfare of its citizens. The latest version also compiled data showing that China paid 21% of the 25% new tariffs, while the United States only paid 4%. This is completely nonsense.

例如，白宫一再表示，关税将有利于美国经济和公民的福利。最新版本还汇编了一个数据，显示中国支付了25%的新关税中的21%，而美国只支付了4%。这完全是胡说八道。

As is well known, tariffs are paid by American importers who can negotiate with Chinese manufacturers, share some tariffs, and pass some tariffs on to consumers through price increases. The ability of American importers to share tariffs with Chinese manufacturers is inevitably limited, as China's export profits to the United States are not high. This will increase the share of American consumers who will be taxed.

众所周知，关税是由美国进口商支付的，他们可以与中国制造商谈判，分享部分关税，并通过提价将部分关税转嫁给消费者。美国进口商让中国制造商分享关税的能力必然有限，因为中国对美国的出口利润不高。这将增加美国消费者将被征税的份额。

The United States is also trying to intimidate China into believing that companies will leave China due to tariffs. Americans seem to arrogantly view China as a professional supplier of American consumer goods and believe that China's prosperity depends on how many markets the United States provides to China.

美国还试图恐吓中国，让中国相信企业会因为关税而离开中国。美国人似乎傲慢地将中国视为美国消费品的专业供应商，并认为中国的繁荣取决于美国给中国多少市场。

China is not a small country and cannot rely solely on the United States. Especially today, China is already a huge market very close to the size of the United States, and there is a trend to surpass the United States. Essentially, China's development is constantly meeting the needs of over a billion people for a better life.

中国不是一个小国，并非只能依赖美国。尤其是今天，中国已经是一个非常接近美国规模的巨大市场，而且有超越美国的趋势。从本质上讲，中国的发展就是不断满足十几亿人民对美好生活的需求。

The White House may try to persuade major American companies such as General Motors, Ford, and Apple to leave China, as China is one of their main markets for products. Which of them can the White House persuade?

白宫不妨试图让通用汽车、福特和苹果等美国大公司离开中国，因为中国是他们产品的主要市场之一。白宫能说服他们中的哪一个？

Even in terms of processing trade, China's infrastructure, worker quality, and component production capacity are not comparable to other Asian countries. We believe that a small number of companies may consider relocating to avoid tariffs, but such relocation is unlikely to force China to make strategic concessions. Americans, stop dreaming.

即使在加工贸易方面，中国的基础设施、工人素质和零部件产能也不是其他亚洲国家可以企及的。我们认为，其中一小部分公司可能会考虑搬迁以避免关税，但这种搬迁不太可能迫使中国做出战略让步。美国人，别做梦了。

China announced on Monday that it will raise tariffs on US manufactured goods by approximately $60 billion, with tariffs on about half of the goods increasing to 25%. This indicates China's determination to counter US coercion. We believe that China will take further countermeasures.

中国周一宣布，将提高约600亿美元美国制造商品的关税，其中约一半的商品的关税将提高到25%。这表明中国决心反击美国的胁迫。我们相信中国将采取进一步的反制措施。

China still has many countermeasures, and we now emphasize the accuracy of countermeasures. The United States is conducting a large-scale strafing tax increase, with a very high self harm rate. Many measures are just bluff, and long-term implementation is difficult. The next step for China is to aim at the target, hit the snake seven inches, and try to avoid self injury as much as possible. Unlike the United States, which seeks quick victory, China, which is preparing to engage in a protracted war, places greater emphasis on the resilience, accuracy, and stability of its counterattack.

中国仍然有很多反制措施，我们现在强调反制措施的准确性。美国正在进行大规模的扫射增税，自伤率非常高，许多措施只是虚张声势，长期实施起来困难重重。中国的下一步行动是瞄准目标，打蛇打七寸，同时尽量避免自伤。与寻求速胜的美国不同，准备打持久战的中国更注重反击的韧性、准确性和稳定性。

China has always bluntly stated that a trade war will bring difficulties and losses to the economies of China, the United States, and even the world, in stark contrast to the US government's long-standing efforts to beautify the trade war. On this basis, China is clearly more pragmatic and realistic, while the US is guilty of fraud. This will greatly affect the quality of the trade war shocks that China and the United States can absorb on their own.

中国一直直言不讳地表示贸易战将给中美两国乃至全世界经济带来困难和损失，这与美国政府长期以来对贸易战的美化形成了鲜明对比。在此基础上，中方显然更加务实和现实，而美方则犯有欺诈罪。这将在很大程度上影响中美两国可以自行吸收的贸易战冲击的质量。